Bitcoin broke above the $62,000 mark on Thursday, continuing its recovery from 21-month lows as a key rotation out of semiconductor stocks provided fresh momentum. The leading cryptocurrency touched an intraday high of $62,170, up 0.75% over the past 24 hours, and was on track for its best weekly performance since late April.
Semiconductor Trade Loses Steam
The rally coincided with a sharp pullback in semiconductor and memory stocks that had been a dominant market theme through the first half of 2026. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had fallen roughly 12% from its June high, while the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) dropped about 25% from its June 22 all-time high. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $58,000 on July 1 before rebounding, a move that some analysts interpret as capital rotating back into crypto.
The connection between the two asset classes is not new. Throughout 2026, semiconductor stocks had largely sidelined bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as investors favored the explosive growth in artificial intelligence and memory chips. With that trade now cooling, the question is whether the digital asset space can sustain its renewed appeal. Data from on-chain providers suggests long-term holders are already acting on the weakness: roughly 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, compared with 9.22 million in profit — the first time loss-making supply has exceeded profitable supply since the current cycle began. Historically, such crossovers have marked periods of bottoming and accumulation.
Altcoins Show Broad Strength
Beyond bitcoin, the altcoin market staged a notable bounce, led by Cardano's ADA, which gained 14% on the day. While ADA only recovered to mid-June levels and remains roughly 50% lower year-to-date, the move was enough to lift sentiment across the sector. Solana (SOL) was another standout, up roughly 35% from its early June trough. Bitfinex analysts noted that this outperformance fits historical patterns: “Altcoins are the first to sell off and the first to turn as well.”
Other gainers included Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC), both of which rose 6-7%. Worldcoin (WLD), the iris-scanning project co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, added 8%. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index advanced 1.7%, with all 20 members in positive territory and Near Protocol leading the way with a 6.1% gain. The CoinDesk 80 Index, which includes smaller tokens, rose 2.3%, with Decentraland, SPX6900, and Celestia each posting gains exceeding 10%.
The strength in altcoins suggests that the capital rotation is not limited to bitcoin. With the semiconductor trade fading, investors appear to be redeploying profits into riskier corners of the crypto market. That dynamic is reinforced by a second development: the beginning of an unwind in the stablecoin market, specifically around the newly announced Open USD.
Stablecoin Turmoil and Circle's Response
On Tuesday, the unveiling of Open USD, a rival stablecoin backed by a consortium that listed over 140 firms including Stripe, Mastercard, and BlackRock, sent Circle’s USDC and its associated perpetual futures sharply lower. Circle’s native token CRCL dropped 17% on Tuesday as investors worried about a competitive threat to USDC’s dominance. By Friday, however, CRCL perpetuals on Hyperliquid had bounced 3% after a South Korea-based news outlet reported that several local firms, including Samsung, denied any official consultations with Open Standard or involvement in the project.
The skepticism around Open USD’s consortium raised questions about the legitimacy of its announced partnerships. While the stablecoin itself is not yet live, the controversy has already created volatility in the crypto derivatives market. Circle, which operates the second-largest stablecoin by market cap, could face more pressure if Open USD gains traction, but for now, the denial from some listed partners provides a reprieve.
Separately, the broader stablecoin market continues to contract. Research from CoinDesk showed that stablecoin market cap fell to $312 billion in June, its largest monthly drop since the TerraUSD collapse. The decline has been accompanied by a surge in tokenized equity volumes, which hit a record $3.86 billion, driven by the SpaceX IPO. This paradox — falling stablecoin supply and rising tokenized asset demand — indicates that capital is moving from stablecoins into yield-bearing assets, a trend that could benefit bitcoin and altcoins if sustained.
Macro Tailwinds Shift in Favor
Several macroeconomic factors are also aligning to support crypto prices. U.S. jobs data released on Thursday significantly missed expectations, with only 57,000 jobs added in June versus a consensus of 110,000. The disappointing report pushed the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range for July and September, with the first 25-basis-point hike not fully priced until October. This dovish shift lifted risk assets broadly, including gold, which rose past $4,100 per ounce, and silver, which topped $62 per ounce.
Oil remained below $70 a barrel after giving back all of its gains from the Iran war that erupted in late February. The decline in oil prices reduces the risk of an energy-driven inflation spike, which had previously pushed the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance. Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, noted in emailed comments that Warsh’s July 1 comments acknowledging that inflation risks have come down represent a tonal shift from the June dot plot. Combined with a softening labor market, these factors argue for rate hike probabilities to reprice lower.
On the crypto-specific front, Sygnum expects bitcoin ETF outflows — which made June the worst month on record for inflows — to reverse in July. Köymen pointed out that long-term holders have returned to net accumulation, and whales have been building aggressively into weakness, a cohort that historically timed entries better than newer ETF investors. With bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average and below the previous cycle’s high, he views the entry point as relatively attractive. However, he cautioned that inflows are likely to be modest given summer liquidity.
Technical Levels and Resistance
Despite the recovery, bitcoin remains below its critical 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,660. This line has served as a strong accumulation zone where bear markets have historically bottomed, and a decisive breakout above it would confirm the bullish narrative. As of late Thursday, bitcoin was changing hands near $61,700, still roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. The 200-week SMA has been widely cited since February as a key support level, and its retest is being watched closely by traders.
Volume data shows that the altcoin recovery is accompanied by a pick-up in trading activity. Solana, for instance, saw volume above $3.6 billion during the week as it rallied 18.6% to $80.44. Ethereum gained 4.2% to $1,702. The CoinDesk 20 Index posted three consecutive days of gains for the first time since mid-June, adding 7.36% over the period. The positive momentum is broad-based, but market participants remain wary of summer doldrums and low liquidity, which could amplify volatility in both directions.
News that the U.S. Congress may take up the CLARITY Act — which would codify clearer rules for crypto assets — in a July 17 hearing could act as an additional catalyst. While passage is uncertain, any movement toward regulatory clarity would be seen as a tailwind. For now, the market is pricing in a gradual recovery rather than a sharp reversal, as evidenced by the modest gains across most assets.
The rotation from semiconductors to crypto is still in its early innings. Whether it continues depends on further weakness in chip stocks and sustained buying from long-term holders. The supply crossover at a loss has historically marked periods of deeper accumulation, and if ETF inflows turn positive in the coming weeks, the foundation for a more durable uptrend could be laid. For the moment, bitcoin is holding above $60,000, a level that had been tested repeatedly in late June.
Source: Coindesk News