As Nevada prepares to move near the front of the Democratic presidential nominating calendar, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is making an early and deliberate push to win over voters in a state that has long watched its western neighbor with a mixture of admiration, envy, and suspicion.
Nevada is expected to be the second state to hold a Democratic primary in 2028, following South Carolina, under a schedule being finalized by the Democratic National Committee. The state's diverse electorate, high union density, and recent growth among Latino, Asian American, and Black communities make it an attractive testing ground for presidential hopefuls. For Newsom, it also presents a unique political challenge: a state full of former Californians who left, in many cases, because of the very affordability crisis that has defined his governorship.
Newsom traveled to the Las Vegas area last month to help the Nevada Democratic Party kick off canvassing efforts on behalf of U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford and Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. In March, Newsom also flew to Boulder City to promote his memoir at the home of Democratic activist Judy Hoskins. Those visits have reinforced the sense that Newsom is already running a shadow campaign for the White House, even as he finishes his second term as California's governor.
Nevada's New Role in the 2028 Primary Calendar
The Democratic National Convention is expected to finalize its early calendar at its summer meeting, after the Rules and Bylaws Committee chose South Carolina and Nevada to lead the 2028 primaries. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia would follow. The lineup represents a major shift from the traditional Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary structure, elevating diverse states that reflect the party's coalition.
Nevada's position is particularly significant because it is a competitive general election state. While California is a reliably Democratic stronghold, Nevada is more evenly divided, with a strong libertarian streak that often defies simple partisan labels. That makes the state an ideal barometer for candidates seeking to prove their appeal beyond the progressive base.
Newsom is not alone in recognizing Nevada's importance. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, former Obama White House official Rahm Emanuel, and Arizona U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego have all visited the state in recent months. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was scheduled to appear Saturday at a Reno-area Democratic fundraiser. The early jockeying suggests that Nevada could become the first real test of messaging and organization in the 2028 race.
Polling Shows Newsom Leading the Field in Nevada
A recent Emerson College poll found Newsom leading a field of 12 prospective 2028 contenders with 37% support among Nevada Democrats. Buttigieg followed at 19%, New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 6%. The same poll found Attorney General Aaron Ford and Gov. Joe Lombardo in a dead heat in the general election, a sign that Nevada remains highly competitive.
A source in Newsom's orbit, who declined to be identified in order to preserve their relationship with the governor, noted that Ford was comfortable campaigning alongside Newsom. "There's a reason Aaron Ford was comfortable campaigning with Newsom: he's popular with Democratic voters in the state," the ally said.
But popularity among primary voters may not translate into success in a general election. Nevada Democrats are used to Republican efforts to tie local candidates to California's perceived excesses. A Republican campaign billboard highlighting Newsom's endorsement of Ford was already part of the 2025 off-year campaign, and Lombardo has derided Newsom's "tax-and-spend" agenda in response to a Las Vegas Review-Journal op-ed. Steve Sisolak, Nevada's last Democratic governor, acknowledged that some Democrats downplay their support for Newsom because of that political baggage.
Former Gov. Steve Sisolak on Newsom's Appeal
Sisolak said Newsom is held in "very high regard" among Democratic activists and voters. "He's highly liked and well regarded," Sisolak said, calling Newsom "very approachable" and "exceptionally helpful" on shared issues such as wildfires, the shrinking Colorado River, and interstate highway traffic. But Sisolak also pointed to the billboard as evidence that Republicans view Newsom as a useful villain.
"The idea is that Newsom's support would detract from Aaron Ford," Sisolak said. That dynamic reflects a broader tension in Nevada politics. The state has a strong independent tradition and a live-and-let-live culture, even as it leans Democratic in presidential elections. Voters may appreciate Newsom's national profile while simultaneously resisting policies associated with California's high taxes and housing costs.
California's Exodus and the Affordability Factor
One of the most complicated issues for Newsom is the migration of Californians to Nevada. California has lost about 900,000 people to other states since 2015, including more than 300,000 to Nevada since 2018, according to reports from the Public Policy Institute of California and the Nevada Real Estate Group. The top reason cited for leaving was high housing costs, followed by jobs and family reasons.
Newsom's office has pushed back on reports of population loss, framing them as a right-wing media narrative and dismissing the coverage as "California Derangement Syndrome." But in Nevada, the effects of that migration are tangible. In northern Nevada, high-wage earners from California, lured by remote work and employers such as Tesla and Amazon, have contributed to a housing shortage that is among the worst in the United States. Erik Jimenez, the chair of the Washoe County Democrats, said affordability is a major concern for voters.
"It's a tough challenge to solve," Jimenez said. "We're super open to 'how can we continue to grow' but in northern Nevada, 90% of the land is owned by the federal government. There are limited resources to do new things. We can't necessarily just build up new housing stock."
Newsom will need to craft an economic message that addresses these concerns directly. Both Jimenez and a strategist close to the Nevada Democratic Party said the governor cannot simply run as a liberal champion; he must show an understanding of Nevada's unique constraints and local priorities.
The Importance of a Ground Game in Nevada
A strategist close to the Nevada Democratic Party, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said national candidates need to build a ground game early. "We're not an Iowa or a New Hampshire where you can go in and stand up a team on a Tuesday, and hit voters," the strategist said. "Elections here are won by a field organizing margin. That means you need to go to a casino, and talk to workers there, or go to a construction site and talk to people there. Having a presence goes a long way here."
That reality may favor candidates with time and resources. Newsom has both. He has a national fundraising network and a team of experienced organizers from his California campaigns. But he also faces the challenge of overcoming the perception that he is an outsider, even if Nevada is a neighboring state with close cultural and economic ties to California.
The Sanders Precedent and a Changing Electorate
Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Nevada Democratic caucuses handily in 2020, a result driven by a multiracial coalition of young liberal voters drawn to his economic populist message. But the Democratic strategist called that an "apple-to-oranges" comparison, because Nevada was still a caucus state then. In 2028, it will host its first competitive early presidential primary, which changes the rules of engagement.
Caucuses reward intense, organized supporters, while primaries draw a broader and more representative electorate. That shift could benefit candidates with strong name recognition and statewide organizational backing. It could also change the ideological character of the race, making it harder for a progressive insurgent like Sanders to replicate his 2020 success.
A Third Way survey found that most Democratic Nevada primary voters favored candidates who could speak to a broad swath of voters over those focused primarily on progressive ideals. The strategist said this reflects the state's libertarian streak. "We want to be able to carry our guns, but we also want to be able to access abortion," they said. "Ultimately, it comes down to their ability to talk about how they're able to stand up for Nevada and issues Nevadans care about, not about working with one party over another. It's about working across the aisle and finding solutions, not party ideals."
Data Centers and the Future of Nevada's Economy
Jimenez also anticipated that Newsom and other candidates would need to address data centers, a sector that Nevada was an early investor in and that has since become the target of bipartisan backlash. The enormous electricity and water demands of data centers have raised alarms in communities across the state, especially in northern Nevada, where resources are scarce.
"We have acute resource concerns about that, in a way that you won't see in South Carolina," Jimenez said. That issue is a reminder that Nevada's political landscape is not identical to California's. Candidates who arrive with pre-packaged national messages may find themselves confronted by local questions that defy simple ideological answers.
For Newsom, the early primary offers both an opportunity and a warning. He enters with strong name recognition, a fundraising edge, and a base of support among Democratic voters who view him as a national leader. But the state's affordability crisis, its independent political culture, and the presence of thousands of Californians who left the state for economic reasons mean that his path to victory is far from certain. The coming months will show whether he can translate his celebrity into the kind of on-the-ground support that Nevada Democrats say is essential to winning in 2028.
Source: MSN News