When Javier Milei took office as President of Argentina on December 10, 2023, few political observers expected the self-described anarcho-capitalist to survive a year without his coalition fracturing or his approval rating collapsing under the weight of the country's worst economic crisis in decades. Yet, after 12 months of shock therapy, regular protests, and a grinding recession, Milei is still standing — and, according to multiple polls, still commanding the support of roughly half of the Argentine electorate.
This resilience is particularly striking given the circumstances. Milei inherited an economy with inflation running above 200% annually, negative central bank reserves, and a deeply entrenched system of price controls and subsidies. His response was a brutal fiscal adjustment: cutting public spending by more than 30% in real terms, eliminating subsidies for energy and transportation, slashing public works, and devaluing the peso by more than 50% in his first days in office. The resulting shock triggered a painful recession, a spike in poverty to over 50%, and a wave of protests that has become a permanent fixture of Buenos Aires' political landscape.
The Paradox of Protest and Popularity
The sight of thousands of demonstrators marching in front of Congress has become routine throughout Milei's first year. Unions, public sector workers, teachers, university students, and pensioners have all taken to the streets at various points. In April 2024, a massive rally against education budget cuts drew more than 300,000 people in Buenos Aires alone. In October, another national strike paralyzed the country. Yet, none of these protests has translated into a significant drop in Milei's approval rating.
Political analysts point to several explanations. First, the protests are largely concentrated among organized labor and public sector workers — groups that were already opposed to Milei during the election and are not part of his core support base. Second, the broader population, while suffering from the recession, appears willing to tolerate short-term pain in exchange for long-term stability. The key indicator is inflation: from a peak of 25.5% in December 2023, monthly inflation fell to single digits by mid-2024, and the annualized rate has been steadily declining. For many Argentines, the memory of hyperinflation is more frightening than the current recession.
Macroeconomic Wins and Social Costs
Milei's government has been able to boast of a string of macroeconomic achievements in its first year. The primary fiscal surplus, a long-standing demand of international creditors, was achieved as early as January 2024, months ahead of schedule. The central bank has rebuilt its reserves, reducing the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. The country has also seen a sharp reduction in the so-called 'country risk' premium, making it easier for Argentine firms to access credit. International bond markets have reopened for Argentine corporate issuers, and the greenback — often the preferred currency of Argentine savers — has seen its black-market premium over the official exchange rate narrow significantly.
These improvements have not come without a heavy social cost. The poverty rate, which was already high at around 40% when Milei took office, has climbed to over 50% according to some estimates. The construction sector has collapsed due to the halt of public works, and manufacturing output has fallen sharply. The recession has hit small businesses and the informal sector especially hard. Real wages, which had been crushed by inflation even before Milei took office, have only partially recovered. The government's response has been to argue that these are necessary costs of cleaning up a century of economic mismanagement.
The Politics of an Outsider
Milei's political strategy has been as unconventional as his economic policy. Governing with a minority in Congress and a weak party structure, he has relied on executive decrees, vetoes, and a permanent campaign against the 'political caste' he claims is responsible for Argentina's decline. He has used social media to communicate directly with his followers, bypassing traditional media and political intermediaries. His frequent trips abroad, often in the company of prominent international conservatives, have reinforced his image as a global rock star of the far right, but also as a leader more interested in personal branding than in day-to-day governance.
Despite this polarizing style, Milei has managed to maintain the loyalty of a significant portion of the middle class, which sees him as the only politician willing to tell unpalatable truths and confront the entrenched interests that have bankrupted the state. His approval rating among men under 40 remains particularly high, and his message of austerity and individual responsibility resonates with a generation that has seen little reward from years of populist spending.
Distrust in the Alternative
Another crucial factor in Milei's durability is the weakness and fragmentation of the opposition. The Peronist movement, which dominated Argentine politics for decades, is in deep disarray following its catastrophic management of the economy under the previous government. The center-right Juntos por el Cambio coalition, which came close to beating Milei in the 2023 run-off, has split over how to respond to his policies. As a result, no single opposition leader has emerged with the credibility to challenge Milei's narrative that the 'old politics' is bankrupt.
The protests themselves have also inadvertently contributed to Milei's standing among his supporters. Images of union pickets blocking highways, vandalism during demonstrations, and confrontations with police have allowed the government to frame the protests as the work of a violent minority that wants to return to the discredited status quo. Milei has often referred to the demonstration organizers as 'leftist parasites' and 'job creators' for the security forces, a message that plays well with his base.
What the Polls Say
According to a series of polls conducted in late November 2024, Milei's approval rating stands at around 49-53%, largely unchanged from his first few months in office. His disapproval rating hovers in the low 40s, meaning his support base is remarkably stable. More tellingly, his government's image has not suffered from the recession, despite the negative social indicators. When asked about their personal economic situation, a majority of Argentines still say they are worse off than a year ago. Yet, when asked about the future of the country, a plurality says they believe Milei's policies will eventually work.
This disconnect between the present and the future is a classic pattern in economic adjustment programs. Milei himself has repeatedly asked for patience, promising that growth and low inflation are just around the corner. With the recession appearing to bottom out and some leading indicators, such as mining and energy exports, starting to recover in the latter part of 2024, there is a chance that the worst is over. The government has also begun to ease some restrictions on capital controls and has announced plans for a new investment incentive scheme aimed at attracting foreign capital.
The Road Ahead
Still, the road ahead remains fraught. The International Monetary Fund, which Argentina owes over $40 billion, is still evaluating the government's compliance with its program. The Chinese currency swap line, which provides a safety net for the central bank, is up for renegotiation. The government's planned comprehensive tax reform and labor reform are stalled in Congress, which could limit the supply-side improvements needed to sustain long-term growth. And the 2025 midterm elections will provide an important test of Milei's political support. Should the government lose seats, Milei will be further forced to rely on vetoes and decrees, potentially deepening the gridlock.
There is also the question of whether Milei's intense style of government can last. The president has been known to work long hours, dominate social media with multiple posts per day, and engage in constant confrontation with journalists, critics, and even allied politicians. Such a high-wire act may prove exhausting for his team and for the broader political system. But those who know Milei say he thrives on combat, and the protests, rather than wearing him down, seem to energize him.
For now, the Argentine public appears to be giving Milei the benefit of the doubt. The memory of decades of inflation, corruption, and stagnation is a powerful force. Regular protests are a sign of a functioning democracy, but they are also, paradoxically, a reminder of the instability that Milei was elected to end. As long as prices continue to moderate and the economy shows clear signs of revival, the protests are unlikely to threaten his position. And even if they grow larger, the political divide in Argentina is so deep that a large number of citizens will continue to back a leader they see as their only shield against a return to the chaos of the past.
One year is a short time to judge a country's longest-running economic experiment. But the fact that Milei has not only survived but maintained his popularity in the face of such profound disruption is a testament to the depths of Argentina's hunger for change. Whether the gamble pays off in the long run remains to be seen, but for the time being, the president who promised to take a chainsaw to the state is still standing, and the crowds of protesters outside Congress have not shaken his political foundation.
Source: AP News News