Market rally lifts bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $63,900 early Thursday, easing slightly, while U.S. stock futures climbed as Microsoft's quarterly results reassured investors that heavy spending on artificial intelligence is starting to pay off. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.4% after the index entered a correction. Microsoft gained 8% in premarket trading after its cloud unit posted its fastest growth in four years while keeping spending in check.
By midday, bitcoin had climbed back to $65,000, up 0.8% over 24 hours, as the Nasdaq composite advanced more than 2%. Microsoft, with a market value above $3 trillion, was on track for its biggest one-day gain since 2020, while Meta Platforms tumbled 9% following an earnings miss.
Bitcoin has tracked the AI trade closely in recent sessions, moving with the chip and AI complex rather than on crypto-specific news. A rebound in semiconductor and infrastructure stocks helped lift risk appetite across digital assets and equities.
Earnings roundup
Apple slips despite beat
Apple reported fiscal third-quarter earnings per share of $2.02, beating the $1.89 consensus, on revenue of $109.4 billion versus expectations of $108.7 billion. Gross margins of 50.1% topped company guidance of around 48%, partly helped by tariff refunds. Shares fell 2.5% in after-hours trading, although the stock had risen 15% over the previous month and was trading near a record high.
Strategy books large bitcoin-related loss
Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, reported an $8.2 billion second-quarter net loss as bitcoin's price decline forced an $8.32 billion unrealized markdown on its digital asset holdings. The company said it held 843,775 bitcoin as of July 26, up 25% from the start of the year. At current prices, the stash was worth roughly $54.8 billion against an acquisition cost of $63.7 billion.
The loss had been widely anticipated by investors, and shares were stable. Strategy raised $17.06 billion through at-the-market stock sales this year, repurchased $1.5 billion of convertible notes at an 8% discount, and expanded its USD reserve to $3.75 billion. Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang said that reserve covers preferred dividend payments and interest obligations for more than 2.1 years. Strategy also sold about $218.4 million of bitcoin under a new monetization program to fund preferred dividends, and it established a $1 billion share repurchase program for MSTR common stock without buying back shares. The company separately repurchased about $25 million of its STRC preferred shares at a discount and said it intended to continue buying while they trade below par.
Coinbase shares fall after revenue miss
Coinbase slid roughly 5% in after-hours trading after second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion missed consensus of $1.29 billion. Transaction revenue was $599 million versus expectations of $628 million, while subscription and services revenue totaled $555 million against estimates of $599 million. Bitcoin fell about 14% during the quarter and ether lost about 25%, reducing trading volumes and volatility across spot markets. Robinhood also reported a 38% year-over-year decline in crypto trading revenue to $100 million.
CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to record market share of 10.3% of global crypto trading volume and growth in stablecoins, Base, and prediction markets. CFO Alesia Haas said industry spot volumes fell more than 20% and total crypto market capitalization declined by double digits, contributing to a 14% quarter-over-quarter drop in total revenue.
Amazon gains on Anthropic stake
Amazon reported second-quarter earnings per share of $5.75, far above estimates for $1.81, after recording a $53.4 billion gain on its investment in Anthropic. Revenue of $200.6 billion beat forecasts for $195.6 billion, and third-quarter revenue guidance also exceeded analyst expectations. Shares rose 6% after hours.
AI fund turmoil and data center rebound
The AI trade has been volatile. Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund, once a high-profile vehicle for AI-related bets, reportedly sold all of its public investments in one block trade, with both longs and shorts transferred to another single fund. Ken Griffin's Citadel purchased a large portion of the portfolio, according to people familiar with the matter. Situational Awareness had suffered heavy losses on positions such as SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave, and also lost on short positions in software companies like Adobe.
The unwinding helped set up a sharp rebound in former bitcoin miners turned AI data center operators. IREN, Hut 8, Cipher Mining, and Keel Infrastructure rallied between 18% and 28% early Thursday, recovering some of the week's losses. MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and Bitdeer gained about 20%, and Galaxy Digital rose 15.5%.
Policy, inflation, and central banks
Economic data offered mixed signals. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.1% in June, below forecasts for 0.2% and down from 0.3% in May. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE rose 3.3%, in line with expectations and down from 3.4%. The preliminary estimate for annualized second-quarter GDP growth was just 1.5% versus a forecast of 2.1%. Initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 from 188,000.
Analysts at 21Shares noted that the supercore inflation gauge, which strips out food, energy, housing, and utilities, remained close to 4% year-over-year. That suggests the Federal Reserve could still deliver a rate hike in September. Markets assigned roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
Treasury yields continued to climb. The real yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reached nearly 3%, the highest since 2008, offering a return of almost 3% above inflation. That creates a headwind for zero-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin. The 30-year nominal yield rose to 5.24% early Thursday, the highest since 2007. Despite the Fed's hawkish hold, the Dollar Index dropped to 100.67, extending a slide from 101.49. A weaker dollar supports bitcoin, while higher real yields weigh on it.
The yen surged against the dollar in a move that suggested Japanese authorities intervened. Dollar/yen tumbled by more than two figures in minutes. A sharp yen move can trigger an unwind of carry trades, which previously forced selloffs in risk assets, including a bitcoin plunge in August 2024.
The Bank of England left its benchmark rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three dissenters favoring a hike to 4%. The bank cited faster-than-expected inflation easing to 2.6% but forecast higher inflation later in the year because of energy prices tied to Middle East tensions.
Treasury Secretary Bessent urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act, saying Democrats are choosing politics and that the legislation has adequate consumer and illicit finance safeguards. He said the Senate needs to vote now, adding that America will lead or it won't.
Crypto industry moves
Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said significant entities could move on-chain by late 2026 or early 2027 as the NYSE parent works with the SEC to tokenize listed securities. He said blockchain cannot replace the NYSE's matching engine but could enable around-the-clock settlement, collateral transfers, and lending. ICE made a strategic investment and partnered with OKX in March to distribute tokenized NYSE products.
DRW founder Don Wilson expanded his argument that perpetual futures should be regulated like futures, not swaps. He traced the confusion to the Enron collapse and Dodd-Frank Act, arguing that exchanges such as ICE and CME reclassified centrally cleared swaps as futures without changing their structure. Regulation, he said, should follow economic substance and market risk, not terminology.
DeFi lender Aave proposed leaving six blockchains—Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium, and Aptos—after revenue from those deployments fell below support costs. The proposal spans $98.1 million of supplied assets and $15.6 million of debt across Aave, with the six closures accounting for $12.8 million of supplied assets and $4.1 million of debt. Deposits on Sonic fell 74% to $7.6 million, while Scroll deposits dropped 86% to $2.2 million.
In other developments, tokenized stock trading surged 288% in July, though one QQQ token drove most of the volume. The SEC agreed to review Nasdaq's bitcoin options
Source: Coindesk News