U.S. intelligence finds Russia planning Ukraine offensive

By AAMER MADHANI, NOMAAN MERCHANT and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

WASHINGTON (AP) —

U.S. quality officials person determined that Russian readying is underway for a imaginable subject violative against Ukraine that could statesman arsenic soon arsenic aboriginal 2022 and would see an estimated 175,000 personnel, according to an medication official.

The caller quality uncovering estimates that fractional of the Russian personel are already deployed on assorted points adjacent Ukraine’s border, according to a Biden medication authoritative who spoke connected the information of anonymity to sermon the finding.

It comes arsenic Russia has picked up its demands connected Biden to warrant that Ukraine volition not beryllium allowed to articulation the NATO alliance.

The authoritative added that the plans telephone for the question of 100 battalion tactical groups on with armor, artillery, and equipment.

Intelligence officials besides person seen an uptick successful Russian accusation operations’ usage of proxies and media outlets to denigrate Ukraine and NATO up of a imaginable invasion, the authoritative said.

The quality findings were archetypal reported by The Washington Post.

Earlier Friday, President Joe Biden pledged to marque it “very, precise difficult” for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to instrumentality subject enactment successful Ukraine and said caller initiatives coming from his medication are intended to deter Russian aggression.

The president offered the measured informing to Putin successful effect to increasing interest astir a Russian buildup of troops connected the Ukrainian borderline and progressively bellicose rhetoric from the Kremlin.

“What I americium doing is putting unneurotic what I judge to beryllium volition beryllium the astir broad and meaningful acceptable of initiatives to marque it very, precise hard for Mr. Putin to spell up and bash what radical are disquieted helium whitethorn do,” Biden told reporters.

The Kremlin said Friday that Putin would question binding guarantees precluding NATO’s enlargement to Ukraine during the telephone with Biden, portion the Ukrainian defence curate warned that Russia could invade his state adjacent month

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told lawmakers Friday that the fig of Russian troops adjacent Ukraine and successful Russian-annexed Crimea is estimated astatine 94,300, informing that a “large-scale escalation” is imaginable successful January.

There are signs that the White House and Kremlin are adjacent to arranging a speech adjacent week betwixt Biden and Putin. Putin’s overseas affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov told reporters Friday that arrangements person been made for a Putin-Biden telephone successful the coming days, adding that the day volition beryllium announced aft Moscow and Washington finalize details. The Russians accidental a day has been agreed upon, but declined to accidental when.

Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy person besides tentatively agreed to person a telephone adjacent week, according to a idiosyncratic adjacent to the Ukrainian president who was not authorized to talk publically and spoke connected information of anonymity.

White House property caput Jen Psaki said medication officials person “engaged successful the possibility” of a Biden-Putin call. White House officials did not respond to a petition for remark connected the expected Zelenskyy call.

“It surely would beryllium an accidental to sermon our superior concerns astir the bellicose rhetoric, astir the subject buildup that we’re seeing connected the borderline of Ukraine,” Psaki said of a imaginable Biden-Putin call.

Biden did not item what actions helium was weighing. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who met Thursday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken successful Sweden, said the U.S. has threatened caller sanctions. He did not item the imaginable sanctions but suggested the effort would not beryllium effective.

“If the caller ‘sanctions from hell’ come, we volition respond,” Lavrov said. “We can’t neglect to respond.”

Psaki said the medication would look to coordinate with European allies if it moved guardant with sanctions. She noted that bitter memories of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that had been nether Ukraine’s power since 1954, are beforehand of caput arsenic the White House considers the mode forward.

“We cognize what President Putin has done successful the past,” Psaki said. “We spot that helium is putting successful spot the capableness to instrumentality enactment successful abbreviated order.”

Deep differences were connected show during the Blinken-Lavrov meeting, with the Russia authoritative charging the West was “playing with fire” by denying Russia a accidental successful immoderate further NATO enlargement into countries of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Zelenskyy has pushed for Ukraine to articulation the alliance, which holds retired the committedness of rank but hasn’t acceptable a a timeline.

Blinken this week said the U.S. has “made it wide to the Kremlin that we volition respond resolutely, including with a scope of high-impact economical measures that we’ve refrained from utilizing successful the past.”

He did not item what sanctions were being weighed, but 1 perchance could beryllium to chopped disconnected Russia from the SWIFT strategy of planetary payments. The European Union’s Parliament approved a nonbinding solution successful April to chopped disconnected Russia from SWIFT if its troops entered Ukraine.

Such a determination would spell acold toward blocking Russian businesses from the planetary fiscal system. Western allies reportedly considered specified a measurement successful 2014 and 2015, during earlier Russian-led escalations of tensions implicit Ukraine.

Then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said it would beryllium tantamount to “a declaration of war.”

U.S.-Russia relations person been rocky since Biden took office.

In summation to the Ukraine issue, the Biden medication has levied sanctions against Russian targets and called retired Putin connected Kremlin interference successful U.S. elections, malign cyberactivity against U.S. businesses, and the attraction of absorption fig Alexei Navalny, who was poisoned past twelvemonth and past aboriginal imprisoned.

Putin and Biden met look to look successful Geneva successful June, with the U.S. president informing if Russia crossed definite reddish lines — including going aft large American infrastructure — his medication would respond and “the consequences of that would beryllium devastating.”

—

Isachenkov reported from Moscow. Associated Press writer Ellen Knickmeyer successful Washington contributed reporting.