Putin to seek guarantees on Ukraine as invasion fears grow

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and YURAS KARMANAU

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin said Friday that President Vladimir Putin volition question binding guarantees precluding NATO’s enlargement to Ukraine during a planned telephone with U.S. President Joe Biden, portion a U.S. quality study and the Ukrainian defence curate warned of a imaginable Russian penetration of Ukraine arsenic soon arsenic adjacent month.

With tensions betwixt Russia and the West escalating, Biden said his medication was “putting unneurotic what I judge to beryllium the astir broad and meaningful acceptable of initiatives to marque it very, precise hard for Mr. Putin to spell up and bash what radical are disquieted helium whitethorn do” successful positioning troops adjacent Ukraine.

The NATO main and galore erstwhile U.S. diplomats and information officials accidental Russia’s request that Biden regularisation retired NATO rank for Ukraine, a erstwhile Soviet republic anxious to state with the West, is simply a nonstarter.

“There’s perfectly nary mode successful the satellite that that Russian presumption volition marque immoderate progress,” John Herbst, a erstwhile U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said Friday. “It’s fundamentally a rhetorical constituent for Moscow.” More likely, helium said, were U.S. assurances that Western subject assistance to Ukraine beryllium for antiaircraft purposes only.

Ukraine, the U.S. and different Western allies are progressively acrophobic that a Russian unit buildup adjacent the Ukrainian borderline could awesome Moscow’s volition to invade. Officials accidental it remains unclear if Putin intends to spell done with an penetration oregon appears to beryllium threatening 1 successful hopes of forcing concessions from Ukraine and its Western allies. The U.S. has threatened the Kremlin with the toughest sanctions yet if it launches an attack, portion Russia has warned that immoderate beingness of NATO troops and weapons connected Ukrainian ungraded would transverse a “red line.”

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told lawmakers Friday that the fig of Russian troops adjacent Ukraine and successful Russian-annexed Crimea is estimated astatine 94,300, informing that a “large-scale escalation” is imaginable successful January.

An unclassified U.S. quality study made nationalist aboriginal Friday cited caller artillery, unit and materiel movements adjacent Ukraine’s borderline successful saying Russia was readying for the anticipation of a subject violative with 175,000 troops aboriginal adjacent year.

“The plans impact extended question of 100 battalion tactical groups … on with armor, artillery, and equipment,” according to the U.S. report, which said astir fractional of those units were already adjacent Ukraine’s border. The quality uncovering was archetypal reported by The Washington Post. A Biden medication official, speaking connected information of anonymity to sermon the finding, confirmed it to The Associated Press.

Amid the mounting tensions, Putin’s overseas affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov told reporters Friday that arrangements person been made for a Putin-Biden telephone successful the coming days, adding that the day volition beryllium announced aft Moscow and Washington finalize details.

White House property caput Jen Psaki said aboriginal that medication officials person “engaged successful the possibility” of a Biden-Putin call.

“It surely would beryllium an accidental to sermon our superior concerns astir the bellicose rhetoric, astir the subject buildup that we’re seeing connected the borderline of Ukraine,” Psaki said.

On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met face-to-face with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, successful Stockholm to request that Russia propulsion backmost troops from the borderline with Ukraine. Lavrov retorted that the West was “playing with fire” by denying Russia a accidental successful immoderate further NATO enlargement into countries of the erstwhile Soviet Union.

Ukraine has pushed to articulation the alliance, which has held retired the committedness of rank but hasn’t acceptable a timeline.

Ushakov noted that during the telephone with Biden, Putin volition rise his request for a legally binding statement that would “exclude immoderate further NATO enlargement eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that would endanger america connected the territories of neighboring countries, including Ukraine.”

Russia agelong has pushed for specified arrangements, Ushakov said, emphasizing that it has go peculiarly acute due to the fact that of the latest buildup of tension. “It simply can’t proceed similar that,” helium said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this week that Russia had nary accidental successful whether Ukraine joined the Western information alliance.

“It is up to Ukraine and 30 allies to determine erstwhile Ukraine is acceptable to articulation the alliance,” helium said. Russia “has nary veto, nary close to interfere successful that process.”

Russia and Ukraine person remained locked successful a tense tug-of-war aft Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula successful 2014 and threw its value down a separatist insurgency successful Ukraine’s eastbound concern heartland, known arsenic the Donbas. More than 14,000 radical person died successful the fighting.

Ukraine’s defence curate warned Friday that an escalation “is a probable scenario, but not certain, and our task is to avert it.”

“Our quality work analyzes each scenarios, including the worst ones,” Reznikov said. “The astir probable clip erstwhile (Russia) volition beryllium acceptable for the escalation is extremity of January.”

Konstantin Kosachev, a lawman talker of the precocious location of parliament, reaffirmed Moscow’s denial that it was pondering an attack.

“We don’t person immoderate plans to onslaught Ukraine. We don’t person immoderate heightened subject enactment adjacent Ukraine’s borders. There is nary mentation underway for an offensive,” Kosachev told Russia’s authorities TV transmission Russia-24.

The Kremlin has voiced interest that Ukraine whitethorn usage unit to reclaim power of the rebel east. And adding to the tensions, the caput of a Russian-backed, self-proclaimed separatist republic successful eastbound Ukraine said Thursday that helium could crook to Moscow for subject assistance if the portion faced a Ukrainian attack.

Reznikov said Ukraine wouldn’t bash thing to provoke Russia but is prepared to respond successful lawsuit of an attack. “Ukraine is astir funny successful governmental and diplomatic resolution,” the defence curate said.

He said that Ukraine volition motorboat operation this period of 2 naval bases with British assistance — 1 successful Ochakiv connected the Black Sea and different 1 successful Berdyansk connected the Sea of Azov.

“The improvement of the navy and the rocket programme are among our priorities,” helium said.

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Karmanau reported from Kyiv, Ukraine. Ellen Knickmeyer and Aamer Madhani successful Washington and Dasha Litvinova successful Moscow contributed to this report.