Inside the Dodgers: The final word on their NLCS loss

Editor’s note: This is the Monday, Oct. 25 variation of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from newsman J.P. Hoornstra. To person the newsletter successful your inbox, sign up here.

The clip has come. Another playoff bid is over, different play ended. That means determination is concern to bash here, the concern of parsing parts from the whole, and we’ll get to that successful a minute.

Your tolerance for my repetition of this constituent mightiness vary, but it has to beryllium said: The Dodgers who mislaid the National League Championship Series to the Atlanta Braves were not the aforesaid Dodgers who won 106 games during the regular season. Steven Souza Jr. appeared successful 10 of the Dodgers’ 12 postseason games, and 17 of their 162 regular-season games (between 2 of which helium was designated for assignment). This is not due to the fact that Souza’s bat was excessively blistery to permission disconnected their postseason roster; it’s due to the fact that they had nary amended choices aft Max Muncy wounded his elbow successful the last crippled of the regular season. (Note the unusually large intermission astatine the 4:40 people of this video of Dave Roberts’ postgame property league successful Atlanta. Walker Buehler’s pithy postgame tweet felt the aforesaid way.) This newsletter isn’t evaluating the Dodgers present truthful overmuch arsenic the odgers – a unit missing astir 14.3 percent of its essence.

Now, we tin reason whether immoderate of Souza’s at-bats should person gone to Gavin Lux oregon Austin Barnes instead. That’s fair. We tin reason whether Julio Urías should person pitched retired of the bullpen successful Game 2 of the NLCS, oregon whether Max Scherzer should person pitched retired of the bullpen successful Game 5 of the NL Division Series. That’s fair, too. Just retrieve that injuries are the fulcrum connected which each of these choices rested. I’m not saying Roberts was close successful each 1 of his decisions. I’m saying that if you blasted Roberts much than the injuries to Clayton Kershaw/Max Muncy/Justin Turner/Joe Kelly/Max Scherzer for the Dodgers’ play being over, you are overestimating the value of a manager.

Every playoff bid was won oregon mislaid by the players connected the field. Here is the accepted season-ending summary of each subordinate who appeared successful the NLCS, ranked by his title triumph probability added (cWPA), a look that approximates the measurement of however overmuch they helped oregon wounded the Dodgers – the odgers – implicit the people of the six games:

1. Chris Taylor, 10.65%

Taylor ne'er had a multi-homer playoff crippled earlier Game 5. He had lone 4 multi-homer games successful the regular play to that constituent successful his career. Yet somehow, adjacent a 4-for-5, six-RBI crippled from Taylor didn’t look terribly retired of character. That’s conscionable who helium is erstwhile he’s hot. To that end, I don’t deliberation Taylor needfully needed this postseason to grow his free-agent market. He’ll play adjacent play astatine property 31, truthful helium mightiness person quieted age-related concerns among immoderate GMs. His last October slash line: .351/.419/.784. If that was Taylor’s past postseason arsenic a Dodger, man, what a mode to spell out.

2. Cody Bellinger, 6.69%

Bellinger’s postseason slash enactment (.353/.436/.471) reflects 2 things: 1, helium (finally) took a much contact-oriented attack and 2, it worked! He had the large location tally successful Game 3, and the game-tying azygous successful Game 6. Including that hit, Bellinger slashed .333/.364/.476 with 2 strikes successful the postseason – a marked betterment from years past. Statistics similar this beg the question: can his postseason plaything adjustments transportation implicit to 2022? If so, the Dodgers person a feasible left-handed onslaught (along with Max Muncy, Gavin Lux and Edwin Rios) connected a roster without Corey Seager. If not, losing Seager to escaped bureau could beryllium devastating.

3. Alex Vesia, 3.03%

From the time successful September that Roberts declared Vesia his apical left-handed alleviation pitcher, a postseason similar this seemed possible. I’m not definite what happened successful Game 6, erstwhile helium walked the bases loaded lone for Blake Treinen to bail him out. Vesia besides allowed a solo location tally successful Game 1 of the NLDS; successful 5 appearances successful betwixt helium retired 10 of the 14 batters helium faced without allowing a run.

4. Brusdar Graterol, 2.54%

Graterol began the ninth inning of Game 2 by falling down Travis d’Arnaud 2-and-0 and allowing a hit. He got the adjacent 2 outs earlier Eddie Rosario’s azygous disconnected Kenley Jansen tagged Graterol with the loss. The flamethrowing righty inactive finished the postseason with 7 hits and lone the 1 tally allowed successful 9 innings (no walks, either). He was the cleanable right-handed middle-relief complement to Vesia – a relation helium should beryllium capable to reprise successful 2022.

5. AJ Pollock, 2.02%

Pollock’s archetypal 7 postseason games (4 for 22, 2 RBIs, 9 strikeouts) contrasted sharply with his past 4 (7 for 13, 7 RBIs, zero strikeouts). Hopefully, his two-homer show successful Game 5 reminded fans of who helium has been the past 3 years: a solid-hitting near fielder (125 OPS+) susceptible of batting successful the mediate of a lineup erstwhile healthy.

6. Phil Bickford, 1.66%

Bickford pitched six innings successful the postseason, allowed 4 singles and nary runs, and didn’t locomotion a batter. He was a invaluable multi-inning alleviation pitcher successful the NLCS, efficaciously doing what we expected of David Price oregon Tony Gonsolin. I’m not definite however often the Dodgers tin support uncovering two-pitch mediate relievers who abruptly add velocity and break astatine mid-career, but it’s a bully look arsenic agelong arsenic it works.

7. Justin Bruihl, 1.34%

Someday I’ll bash a heavy dive connected wherefore Bruihl went undrafted retired of Cal Poly successful 2018. By the adjacent year, it was wide helium could transportation professionally. In the NLCS, opponents were 0 for 7 against Bruihl – the uncommon Dodger who wasn’t asked to bash excessively overmuch and performed to expectations.

8. Joe Kelly, 0.95%

Opponents were 0 for 7 with 4 strikeouts against Kelly successful the NLCS earlier his ill-fated Game 5 start. The Dodgers present tin workout Kelly’s declaration enactment oregon bargain him out, a determination that would look to hinge wholly connected their interior budget. The postseason was a reminder of Kelly’s wounded hazard and his imaginable to grounds outs successful high-leverage situations. You’re getting some for $12 cardinal successful a pitcher who turns 34 adjacent June.

9. Evan Phillips, 0.85%

Phillips lone became a Dodger connected Aug. 16, 2 weeks up of the deadline to beryllium eligible for a postseason roster spot. He finished the play arsenic an unsung leader of the bullpen aft retiring 9 of the 12 men helium faced successful the NLCS. That would look to specify capturing lightning successful a bottle, judging by Phillips’ career. Give recognition to the beforehand bureau for sticking with him retired of a oversea of right-handed alleviation pitchers – Conner Greene, Yefry Ramirez, Kevin Quackenbush, Mike Kickham – who made a akin out-of-nowhere cameo successful the regular season.

10. Max Scherzer, -0.28%

Scherzer went 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA successful 11 regular-season starts aft being traded to the Dodgers. He started the wild-card game, an eventual 3-1 triumph implicit the St. Louis Cardinals. He couldn’t volition the Dodgers to triumph against the Giants successful a windy Game 3 of the NLDS, but helium got revenge in the ninth inning of Game 5. What was near astatine that point? A shaky four-plus innings successful Game 2 of the NLCS, aft which helium revealed his close limb was “dead.” Considering however it began, it was a mild astonishment to larn Scherzer was quality successful the end. Despite the antagonistic cWPA, Scherzer is the past idiosyncratic to blasted for the Dodgers’ eventual downfall.

11. Will Smith, -0.31%

Once upon a time, the Dodgers kicked the tires connected a J.T. Realmuto commercialized erstwhile helium was inactive a Miami Marlin. Realmuto stayed put, but I’ve often wondered however the past 4 years would person played retired if helium didn’t. Smith wasn’t needfully rushed to the large leagues, but his expectations were; 26-year-old catchers who are relatively caller to the position historically don’t pb their teams to championships. Even past year, Barnes appeared successful 5 of the six World Series games and was down the sheet for the last out. So when the Dodger-friendly media starts calling retired Smith for his transportation calling aft an elimination game, well, you wonderment wherefore helium was successful that presumption successful the archetypal place.

Smith besides had 5 hits successful the NLCS. None were particularly big. That’s the cruel portion of this business: Hitting and catching are some really, truly hard, and the playoffs are near-sighted. A best-of-seven bid doesn’t attraction however agelong you’ve been catching, lone that you perform. Until his location tally disconnected you-know-who successful past year’s NLCS, helium wasn’t overmuch of a origin successful that bid against the Braves either. But it’s hard to retrieve thing from that bid astir Smith different than his large moment. The aforesaid goes for this year’s NLCS, and his large infinitesimal wasn’t a bully one for the Dodgers.

12. Andy Burns, -0.66%

Andy Burns is getting astatine slightest a partial playoff share, and that makes him the existent victor of the NLCS. I volition not perceive arguments to the contrary.

13. Corey Knebel, -0.73%

The lat contented that sidelined Knebel for astir of the regular play wasn’t afloat down him this month. Knebel’s worldly was inactive nasty, arsenic evidenced by his 11 strikeouts and 1 locomotion successful five-plus postseason innings – a adjacent facsimile of who Knebel was earlier he had Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers could usage Knebel arsenic an opener and inactive person the bullpen extent to decorativeness a game, a luxury they person ne'er enjoyed successful immoderate postseason I tin remember.

14. Tony Gonsolin, -0.78%

Gonsolin went 1 for 1 arsenic a hitter. If I see that, his cWPA rises to 0 percent – a wash! The little we accidental astir his pitching (three games, twohomers allowed, 5 runs successful all), the better. Considering helium missed extended periods of clip successful the regular play with enarthrosis issues, possibly Gonsolin was fatigued successful October arsenic well. His split-fingered fastball is usually a weapon, but it elicited lone 1 strikeout successful the playoffs – and adjacent that pitch, to Joc Pederson, looked to beryllium severely misplaced. Until Gonsolin’s bid approaches the explanation of “consistent,” I don’t spot him occupying a regular spot successful a five-man rotation successful Los Angeles. The NLCS lone affirmed that.

15. Austin Barnes, -0.82%

Barnes hardly played successful the NLCS. There’s an alternate world successful which Clayton Kershaw stays healthy, and Barnes remains his idiosyncratic catcher successful October, and possibly does thing special. As it is, his sacrifice bunt successful Game 1 and his strikeout successful Game 2 were yet forgettable.

16. Matt Beaty, -1.75%

Beaty’s RBI azygous during a precocious rally successful Game 2 of the NLDS was his lone deed of the postseason. He went 0 for 3 successful the NLCS and started conscionable 1 of the six games astatine archetypal base. This is good wrong the scope of expectations for a subordinate who is perfectly serviceable disconnected the bench, and astir apt won’t beryllium starting successful October for immoderate afloat steadfast team.

17. Kenley Jansen, -1.82%

Jansen gets dinged by cWPA for allowing the walk-off azygous to Rosario successful Game 2. His postseason (7 IP, 3H, 1 BB, 14 K) was amended than that. Jansen’s 2021 translation from an unreliable subordinate of a bullpen committee into a person astatine his highest was breathtaking. Soon to beryllium a escaped agent, the translation could not person travel astatine a amended for Jansen, who mightiness person thrown his last transportation successful a Dodger uniform. Appropriately, it was a cutter to onslaught retired Austin Riley.

18. Gavin Lux, -2.14%

Lux’s astir memorable infinitesimal successful the bid – his nightmare error successful Game 3 – ended up not hurting the Dodgers. They won the game, 6-5, but Lux’s relation was subsequently minimalized. He saw lone 2 much at-bats successful the bid (he went 0 for 5 successful all). He played lone 5 much innings successful the field. After his large hits successful Games 4 and 5 of the NLDS, it was a disappointing mode to extremity the season. You could reason that Lux deserved astatine slightest 1 much accidental to marque a quality astatine the sheet successful Games 5 oregon 6, but helium was little than a definite thing. Inconsistency astatine the sheet was his lone changeless successful 2021. At 23, Lux’s short-term upside resembles “useful inferior player” much than “everyday 2nd baseman.”

19. Justin Turner, -2.47%

It’s astir casual to hide that Turner made an All-Star squad successful July. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, helium had been turning downward agelong earlier the Game 5 hamstring injury that ended his season. They needed much than four hits successful 34 at-bats from Turner if they were going to determination on. Folks often constituent retired erstwhile a subordinate who missed clip during the regular play mightiness beryllium much caller travel October for having had each that “rest.” In this case, I deliberation the converse is true: the 1 postseason successful which Turner hardly made an interaction came aft helium tied a vocation precocious successful games played (151) astatine property 36.

20. Blake Treinen, -2.50%

Treinen allowed a azygous to Ozzie Albies, a steal, and a game-winning azygous to Austin Riley successful the ninth inning of Game 1. That’s wherefore his cWPA is what it is. Treinen retired 9 of the 11 batters helium faced the remainder of the bid (and allowed a .452 OPS successful 8 playoff games overall). The 33-year-old right-hander is nether declaration for 2022 with a nine enactment for 2023, which arguably makes him the front-runner to adjacent games for the Dodgers adjacent season.

21. Corey Seager, -3.16%

In 61 vocation postseason games, Seager is simply a .236 hitter with a -10.2% cWPA. (Did I notation that cWPA ignores defense?) His location runs successful Games 2 and 3 of the NLCS, and his full period of October 2020, are truly the exceptions to the rule of forgettable playoff series. I don’t deliberation that tin oregon should diminish fans’ tendency to spot Seager successful a Dodger azygous again, and it mightiness instrumentality Fernando Tatís Jr. wealth to motion him arsenic a escaped agent. Will the Dodgers beryllium that team? At slightest Seager hopes it will.

22. Mookie Betts, -3.35%

The disparity betwixt the Braves’ and Dodgers’ leadoff hitters (Rosario and Betts) was staggering. Atlanta shifted Betts aggressively and effectively. This 102-mph treble play groundout erstwhile Game 1 was inactive tied 2-2 sums up Betts’ bid neatly (4 for 23). He lone struck retired 3 times, but 2 of them came successful his last 2 at-bats. You tin spot the vexation connected Betts’ look as helium swung done this Tyler Matzek fastball successful his past accidental successful Game 6. Maybe determination was much to it, but I truly deliberation the Braves conscionable had his number.

23. Steven Souza Jr., -3.75%

I could easy echo the Andy Burns remark here. That Souza batted 5 times successful the NLCS astatine each is an upset; that helium went 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts is disappointing. By the seventh inning of Game 6, surely Barnes oregon Lux looked similar a marginally amended enactment to pinch deed against Matzek.

24. Albert Pujols, -3.88%

By going 2 for 4 with a locomotion successful Game 5, Pujols put himself successful the institution of immoderate famous quadragenarians from shot history. He went 5 for 17 (.294) successful the postseason overall. This is much than anyone could reasonably person expected from Albert Pujols successful 2021 – a overmuch much fitting extremity to his career, if it is the end, than helium would person received successful Anaheim.

25. Trea Turner, -5.47%

Turner mightiness cod MVP votes this year, which is what makes his NLCS each the much frustrating. His 6-for-26 performance, with six singles and 7 strikeouts, reflected a hitter who failed to marque the aforesaid adjustments arsenic his teammates. Like Betts, it seemed arsenic if Atlanta was determined not to fto Turner bushed them and instrumentality their chances with Taylor, Pollock and Bellinger instead. The strategy worked.

26. Walker Buehler, -9.02%

Buehler simply didn’t person it successful Game 3, and helium threw astatine slightest one transportation excessively galore to Rosario successful Game 6. Like Scherzer, it’s intolerable to analyse Buehler’s show successful the bid successful a vacuum. His 2nd commencement was connected abbreviated rest. His archetypal start, had it travel earlier successful the series, astir apt would person ended aft the 2nd clip done the batting bid if the Dodgers’ pitching unit were not truthful taxed. I’m inactive astatine a nonaccomplishment for what happened successful Game 3. I don’t expect Buehler to let 8 runs successful seven-plus innings successful different playoff bid for a long, agelong time.

27. Julio Urías, -10.40%

Three days aft his “bulk innings” show successful the NLDS clincher, Urías was tapped to transportation the eighth inning of Game 2. The determination backfired, and Roberts had immoderate explaining to bash after Urías allowed 2 runs successful a 5-4 nonaccomplishment successful Atlanta. Three days later, Urías allowed 5 runs successful 5 innings successful Game 4 astatine home, different loss. It’s wide the Braves did their homework connected the 20-game winner, whose 200-2/3 innings were much than treble his erstwhile vocation precocious (83-1/3 successful 2019). More than immoderate of his teammates, Urías supports the proposal that determination were 2 types of Dodgers successful this series: those who were consenting and capable to admit to the media that they were tired, and those who weren’t.

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