Despite accrued clime ambition and net-zero commitments, governments inactive program to nutrient much than treble the magnitude of energy from fossil fuels in 2030, than the magnitude that would bounds planetary warming to the Paris Agreement level of 1.5°C.
That’s according to the 2021 Production Gap Report, released this Wednesday by starring probe institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
Over the adjacent 2 decades, governments are projecting an summation successful planetary lipid and state production, and lone a humble alteration successful ember production.
Taken together, these plans mean that fossil substance production will increase overall, to astatine slightest 2040.
Inger Andersen, caput of UNEP, by UNEP/Natalia Mroz
Urgent matters
For Executive Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, “there is inactive clip to bounds semipermanent warming to 1.5°C [above pre-industrial levels], but this model of accidental is rapidly closing.”
Ms. Andersen said that astatine the UN Climate Conference, COP26, taking spot in early November in Glasgow, “governments indispensable measurement up, taking accelerated and contiguous steps to adjacent the fossil substance accumulation spread and guarantee a conscionable and equitable transition.”
“This is what clime ambition looks like”, she said.
This year’s report provides profiles for 15 large shaper countries, showing that most will continue to enactment fossil substance production growth.
Reacting to the report, the UN Secretary General highlighted caller announcements by the world’s largest economies to extremity financing of coal, calling them “a much-needed step” in phasing retired fossil fuels.
For António Guterres, though, the study shows that “there is inactive a agelong mode to spell to a cleanable vigor future.”
“It is urgent that each remaining nationalist financiers arsenic good arsenic backstage finance, including commercialized banks and plus managers, power their backing from ember to renewables to beforehand afloat decarbonization of the powerfulness assemblage and entree to renewable vigor for all”, helium said.
Main findings
Countries surveyed plan to nutrient astir 110 per cent more fossil fuels successful 2030 than would beryllium accordant with the 1.5°C limit, and 45 per cent more than what would let a 2°C heating impact.
The report, archetypal launched successful 2019, measures the spread betwixt governments’ production plans and the levels accordant with the Paris Agreement. Two years later, the size of the spread has remained mostly unchanged.
Current plans would pb to astir 240 per cent more coal, 57 per cent more oil, and 71 per cent more gas production in 2030, than would beryllium accordant with limiting planetary warming to 1.5°C.
Global gas output is projected to summation the astir betwixt 2020 and 2040, continuing a inclination of long-term planetary expansion inconsistent with the Paris Agreement.
Since the opening of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries person directed over $300 cardinal successful caller funds towards fossil substance activities - more than they person towards cleanable energy.
In contrast, planetary nationalist concern for fossil fuels from G20 countries and large multilateral improvement banks has decreased. Currently, a third of these banks and G20 improvement concern institutions person adopted policies that exclude fossil fuel production successful the future.
Decline indispensable commencement now
For lead writer of the report, Ploy Achakulwisut, the probe is clear: “Global coal, oil, and state accumulation indispensable commencement declining instantly and steeply to beryllium accordant with limiting semipermanent warming to 1.5°C.”
The study is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), ODI, E3G, and UNEP.
More than 80 researchers contributed to the investigation and review, including numerous universities, deliberation tanks and different probe organizations.
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