EXPLAINER: What we know and don’t know on new COVID variant

By MARIA CHENG

LONDON (AP) — South African scientists identified a caller mentation of the coronavirus that they accidental is down a caller spike successful COVID-19 infections successful Gauteng, the country’s astir populous province.

It’s unclear wherever the caller variant archetypal emerged, but scientists successful South Africa alerted the World Health Organization successful caller days, and it has present been seen successful travelers arriving successful respective countries, from Australia to Israel to the Netherlands.

On Friday, the WHO designated it arsenic a “variant of concern,” naming it “omicron” aft a missive successful the Greek alphabet.

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT OMICRON?

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an “exponential rise” of cases successful the past fewer days.

From conscionable implicit 200 caller confirmed cases per time successful caller weeks, South Africa saw the fig of caller regular cases rocket to much than 3,200 Saturday, astir successful Gauteng.

Struggling to explicate the abrupt emergence successful cases, scientists studied microorganism samples and discovered the caller variant. Now, arsenic galore arsenic 90% of the caller cases successful Gauteng are caused by it, according to Tulio de Oliveira, manager of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform.

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WHY ARE SCIENTISTS WORRIED ABOUT THIS NEW VARIANT?

After convening a radical of experts to measure the data, the WHO said that “preliminary grounds suggests an accrued hazard of reinfection with this variant,” arsenic compared to different variants.

That means radical who contracted COVID-19 and recovered could beryllium taxable to catching it again.

The variant appears to person a precocious fig of mutations — astir 30 — successful the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could impact however easy it spreads to people.

Sharon Peacock, who has led familial sequencing of COVID-19 successful Britain astatine the University of Cambridge, said the information truthful acold suggest the caller variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the value of galore of the mutations is inactive not known.”

Lawrence Young, a virologist astatine the University of Warwick, described omicron arsenic “the astir heavy mutated mentation of the microorganism we person seen,” including perchance worrying changes ne'er earlier seen each successful the aforesaid virus.

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WHAT’S KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE VARIANT?

Scientists cognize that omicron is genetically chiseled from erstwhile variants including the beta and delta variants, but bash not cognize if these familial changes marque it immoderate much transmissible oregon dangerous. So far, determination is nary denotation the variant causes much terrible disease.

It volition apt instrumentality weeks to benignant retired if omicron is much infectious and if vaccines are inactive effectual against it.

Peter Openshaw, a prof of experimental medicine astatine Imperial College London said it was “extremely unlikely” that existent vaccines wouldn’t work, noting they are effectual against galore different variants.

Even though immoderate of the familial changes successful omicron look worrying, it’s inactive unclear if they volition airs a nationalist wellness threat. Some erstwhile variants, similar the beta variant, initially alarmed scientists but didn’t extremity up spreading precise far.

“We don’t cognize if this caller variant could get a toehold successful regions wherever delta is,” said Peacock of the University of Cambridge. “The assemblage is retired connected however good this variant volition bash wherever determination are different variants circulating.”

To date, delta is by acold the astir predominant signifier of COVID-19, accounting for much than 99% of sequences submitted to the world’s biggest nationalist database.

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HOW DID THIS NEW VARIANT ARISE?

The coronavirus mutates arsenic it spreads and galore caller variants, including those with worrying familial changes, often conscionable dice out. Scientists show COVID-19 sequences for mutations that could marque the illness much transmissible oregon deadly, but they cannot find that simply by looking astatine the virus.

Peacock said the variant “may person evolved successful idiosyncratic who was infected but could past not wide the virus, giving the microorganism the accidental to genetically evolve,” successful a script akin to however experts deliberation the alpha variant — which was archetypal identified successful England — besides emerged, by mutating successful an immune-compromised person.

ARE THE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS BEING IMPOSED BY SOME COUNTRIES JUSTIFIED?

Maybe.

Israel is banning foreigners from entering the region and Morocco has stopped each incoming planetary aerial travel.

A fig of different countries are restricting flights successful from confederate Africa.

Given the caller accelerated emergence successful COVID-19 successful South Africa, restricting question from the portion is “prudent” and would bargain authorities much time, said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases adept astatine Imperial College London.

But the WHO noted that specified restrictions are often constricted successful their effect and urged countries to support borders open.

Jeffrey Barrett, manager of COVID-19 Genetics astatine the Wellcome Sanger Institute, thought that the aboriginal detection of the caller variant could mean restrictions taken present would person a bigger interaction than erstwhile the delta variant archetypal emerged

“With delta, it took many, galore weeks into India’s unspeakable question earlier it became wide what was going connected and delta had already seeded itself successful galore places successful the satellite and it was excessively precocious to bash thing astir it,” helium said. “We whitethorn beryllium astatine an earlier constituent with this caller variant truthful determination whitethorn inactive beryllium clip to bash thing astir it.”

South Africa’s authorities said the state was being treated unfairly due to the fact that it has precocious genomic sequencing and could observe the variant quicker and asked different countries to reconsider the question bans.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives enactment from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely liable for each content.