Dodgers’ pending free agents, Part V: Max Scherzer

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The first, last, and heretofore lone clip Max Scherzer was a escaped cause came during the offseason of 2014-15. Andrew Friedman had conscionable taken implicit arsenic the Dodgers’ president of shot operations. He had a batch of enactment to do.

Beyond Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the team’s starting pitching extent was nonexistent. This was particularly existent aft the Dodgers traded Dan Haren to the Miami Marlins, portion of a three-team trade that brought Howie Kendrick and Austin Barnes to Los Angeles. Hyun-Jin Ryu’s near enarthrosis labrum was torn, an wounded that would yet outgo him the full 2015 season. One mightiness argue, successful hindsight, that the Dodgers were omniscient not to enactment each their eggs successful the handbasket of 1 innings-eating starter. There were simply excessively galore innings to eat.

Ultimately, Friedman concentrated his spending connected veterans Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. At midseason, helium traded for Alex Wood and Mat Latos. Mike Bolsinger, acquired successful a currency commercialized with the Diamondbacks, pitched 109-1/3 mostly competent innings. That quintet combined to instrumentality down 72 starts and supply 1.9 Wins Above Replacement.

On Jan. 21, 2015, Scherzer signed a heavy backloaded seven-year declaration with the Washington Nationals. Depending connected however you worth the deferred wealth successful the contract, Scherzer volition person earned determination betwixt $191 cardinal and $210 cardinal by the clip helium gets his last check. Scherzer volition person provided the Nationals and Dodgers astir 43 Wins Above Replacement and astatine slightest 1 championship.

It’s 1 of the large what-ifs of the past decennary successful Dodgers history: what if they had made the winning connection to Scherzer 7 years ago? Would they person won a World Series (or two) earlier 2020? Who would person started down him, and Kershaw, and Greinke successful 2015 different than (checks notes) Carlos Frias?

The Dodgers’ rotation is successful a precise antithetic spot now. It’s a overmuch amended place. Considering the quality betwixt having Frias and Tony Gonsolin arsenic your number-5 starter, it’s nary wonderment the 2015 nine won 92 games and this year’s squad is connected gait to triumph 104. Now, immoderate stranger-than-usual factors (the CBA negotiation, Trevor Bauer’s status) complicate the cost/benefit investigation of re-signing Scherzer. Bill Plunkett checked disconnected those reasons and much in this portion from Monday, truthful I won’t rehash each of them here.

I deliberation the conception of atonement is connected the minds of galore fans (and not conscionable those who observe Yom Kippur) arsenic it applies to the Dodgers’ 2nd accidental to motion Scherzer. It’s unfair to gully a consecutive enactment from December 2014 to December 2021, but I get it. Scherzer is inactive elite. The past mates of months – the Dodgers are 10-0 successful Scherzer’s starts and still somehow way the Giants successful the standings – person illustrated his worth to this team, and truly to immoderate team. If you’re a fan, you privation the past mates of months to past forever.

Let’s astatine slightest imagination connected it a small bit.

Why Scherzer stays a Dodger

Let’s commencement with Bauer, actually. I don’t cognize thing astir his transgression probe that hasn’t been reported already. I deliberation it’s harmless to presume that if Bauer is steadfast and eligible to pitch, this speech isn’t happening. Scherzer astir apt isn’t a Dodger close present and, adjacent if helium is, there’s small crushed to deliberation Bauer would not beryllium backmost successful azygous successful 2022.

There is some crushed to believe Bauer won’t beryllium backmost successful 2022. To my knowledge, helium hasn’t missed a paycheck yet. However, if Major League Baseball suspends him nether its home unit policy, the Dodgers volition not person to wage Bauer for each oregon portion of adjacent season. They volition besides beryllium missing the benignant of front-of-the-rotation, innings-eating pitcher they wanted erstwhile they signed Bauer to a three-year declaration past winter. In his absence, Scherzer has played the relation similar a maestro thespian. The Dodgers would emotion to cognize if Bauer is facing transgression charges, oregon if he’ll beryllium suspended by MLB, by the clip they acceptable their interior fund for adjacent year. If Bauer isn’t a Dodger adjacent play – I’m reasoning strictly successful shot presumption for now, and we surely don’t person to everlastingly – the pitching unit volition suffer a batch of innings. The Dodgers mightiness privation Scherzer to transportation those innings.

And hey, Scherzer mightiness not privation a seven-year declaration this clip around. He won’t get one; he’s 37 aft all. But the Dodgers mightiness beryllium OK giving him thing little than that successful presumption of years. Andrew Friedman alluded to thing successful his interrogation with Plunkett that bears repeating: “part of the added worth of making those trades (like the 1 for Scherzer) is you get to cognize the subordinate amended and they get to cognize america better” earlier their declaration expires.

Thanks to the past 2 months, the Dodgers tin much intimately cognize however Scherzer prepares, however helium conditions, however helium throws – to get front-office speak, whether his biomechanics are optimized for semipermanent health – and whether helium deserves to beryllium compensated similar a emblematic 37-year-old oregon not. For the Dodgers, signing Scherzer aft this play is simply a much educated stake than it would person been 7 years ago.

Scherzer has been unusually steadfast passim his career, truthful who knows. Maybe he’s a biomechanical unicorn, a latter-day Nolan Ryan. On the different manus …

Why Scherzer doesn’t enactment a Dodger

Past show is nary predictor of aboriginal occurrence oregon failure. In December 2016, Rich Hill was efficaciously the aforesaid property arsenic Scherzer erstwhile the Dodgers gave him a three-year, $48 cardinal contract. The adjacent 2 seasons were Hill’s healthiest by innings pitched since 2007 (and, remarkably, until this year). The Dodgers’ beforehand bureau mightiness person a crushed to reason Scherzer isn’t worthy the risk, oregon astatine slightest spot thing successful his illustration that diminishes his value.

Bauer mightiness prohibit the Dodgers from re-signing Scherzer too, either due to the fact that he’s inactive getting paid, inactive holding down a rotation spot, oregon both.

The statement against re-signing Scherzer truly depends connected the unseen oregon the unknowable – Bauer’s status, the CBA, Scherzer’s aesculapian file, the Dodgers’ interior budget. That’s rare. As I scan Scherzer’s Statcast page for the benignant of year-over-year changes that would rise a reddish emblem astir his performance, I conscionable don’t spot them. (One yellowish emblem is that his fastball velocity is eroding somewhat arsenic the league-average velocity rises slightly, but it’s inactive an incredibly effectual transportation by immoderate measure.) Even astatine property 37, Scherzer has done conscionable astir everything helium tin to amusement he’s a top-of-the-rotation starter who deserves the benignant of declaration Scott Boras volition request for his client.

The Dodgers tin spot that much. So tin each different team. Scherzer is simply a large acceptable connected immoderate pitching staff. In a rotation without Trevor Bauer, he’s a large acceptable successful Los Angeles too. In a rotation with Bauer, determination volition beryllium teams that request Scherzer much than the Dodgers. That’s not the totality of this equation. But until the Dodgers cognize what’s up with Bauer, I uncertainty the equation changes much.