Dodgers’ pending free agents, Part II: Corey Seager

Editor’s note: This is the Tuesday, Sept. 21 variation of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from newsman J.P. Hoornstra. To person the newsletter successful your inbox, sign up here.

In the April 2019 contented of the diary Management Science, a survey titled “Process Flexibility successful Baseball: The Value of Positional Flexibility” promoted a once-novel thought. “We observe that apical [baseball] teams tin property astatine slightest 1 to 2 wins per play to flexibility alone,” the co-authors wrote, “generally arsenic a effect of agelong subchains successful the infield oregon outfield.” The co-authors? Timothy Chan and Doug Fearing, whom Andrew Friedman hired to tally the Dodgers’ probe and improvement squad successful 2015.

Under Friedman and Fearing, the Dodgers liberally deployed players with immoderate iota of antiaircraft flexibility astir the field. Their exemplary shattered the antiquated conception of replacing a archetypal baseman with a archetypal baseman, a shortstop with a shortstop, etc. – some erstwhile injuries arose astatine midseason and erstwhile assessing escaped agents each winter. This added immense worth to the careers of talented athletes similar Chris Taylor, whom I profiled successful this abstraction yesterday. Those players gave the Dodgers – reportedly – 1-2 wins per play successful return.

Today’s newsletter is astir Corey Seager. As a Dodger, Seager has played 5,539 innings successful the tract betwixt the regular play and postseason. All but 43-2/3 of those innings person travel astatine shortstop. He hasn’t spent an inning astatine 3rd basal – Seager’s lone different presumption arsenic a nonrecreational – since 2015. He is not a versatile fielder.

He is, however, the best-hitting shortstop successful shot (by WRC+) not named Fernando Tatís Jr. since his 2015 debut. Seager, 27, is besides a escaped cause erstwhile the World Series concludes. How volition the Dodgers measure his worth successful a crowded marketplace for shortstops? Will they adjacent beryllium comparing him to different shortstops? Let’s dive in.

WHY SEAGER STAYS A DODGER

Seager does the large things well. He gets connected base. He hits for power. He doesn’t onslaught retired overmuch for a feline who hits the shot arsenic hard arsenic helium does, and his locomotion complaint has risen rather a spot successful 2021. You’d truly beryllium missing the wood for the trees to nitpick Seager’s shortcomings arsenic a hitter.

When Seager was deed by a transportation earlier this play and fractured his hand, helium spent the adjacent 2½ months connected the injured list. The Dodgers past tried to bash what they person often done well. They gave the shortstop presumption to Gavin Lux, a mediate infielder whom they drafted successful the archetypal circular successful 2016. It didn’t spell well. Lux had a .656 OPS erstwhile helium played his last crippled astatine shortstop, and his defence didn’t bash enough to compensate for his shortcomings astatine the plate.

Finding unsafe hitters from the near broadside of the sheet has been a situation for the Dodgers this season. A steadfast Cody Bellinger and Edwin Rios would help, but the Dodgers haven’t had either of those luxuries. Seager and Max Muncy person been near to enarthrosis the load of balancing the lineup. How overmuch tin the Dodgers number connected from Bellinger (and Rios) successful 2022? The uncertainty therein mightiness beryllium the champion crushed to re-sign Seager aft this season.

I’ll get to his antiaircraft shortcomings soon, but see for a infinitesimal the merits of moving Seager to 3rd base, assuming he’s willing. Justin Turner, 36, is the incumbent astatine the position. He’s signed done adjacent season. Right present helium is an mean 3rd baseman by OAA, and somewhat beneath mean according to DRS and UZR. (It’s a uncommon acquisition erstwhile the antiaircraft numbers align that well.) It’s worthy asking whether 1) Turner is champion utilized arsenic a 3rd baseman from commencement to decorativeness successful 2022 and 2) if there’s a amended in-house enactment to regenerate him. Prospect Miguel Vargas mightiness beryllium 2 years distant from playing the presumption astatine the large league level, and helium seems person than Kody Hoese astatine the moment. If Seager tin play an mean 3rd basal successful 2022, the Dodgers wouldn’t miss a bushed connected defense.

The Dodgers would similar not to transportation 2 average-to-below-average fielders connected 1 broadside of the infield. Slide Seager implicit to 3rd basal and you tin plug successful a rangier, much diversion shortstop from wrong the existent 26-man roster.

That, of course, brings america to …

WHY SEAGER DOESN’T STAY A DODGER

Trea Turner isn’t eligible to go a escaped cause until aft the 2022 season. He’s presently playing 2nd basal retired of necessity – Seager is simply a shortstop, you see. Trea Turner isn’t the champion happening since Ozzie Smith with a glove, but he’s arguably got more range than immoderate of his contemporaries astatine the shortstop position. His athleticism suggests he’ll clasp up amended successful the agelong tally than Seager will. If the Dodgers indispensable take which of the 2 players is re-signed to beryllium the superior shortstop, Turner gets the borderline based connected his defence alone.

Turner and Seager are antithetic sorts of violative talents, but the worth they’ve provided implicit the people of their careers is nearly even. That’s wherefore it helps immensely that Turner is the benignant of versatile defender the Dodgers like. In the past, he’s played halfway tract too.

Mookie Betts volition gain $365 cardinal implicit 12 years successful ample portion due to the fact that helium tin capable successful astatine 2nd basal and halfway tract erstwhile helium isn’t playing close field. That versatility conscionable isn’t portion of Seager’s portfolio. Go backmost and work Doug Fearing’s thesis. Now effort to ideate the Dodgers backing up the Brinks motortruck for a subordinate who has been locked into 1 presumption the past 5 years.

This is wherever it’s utile to trot retired Friedman’s maxim astir acting rationally connected each escaped agent. Maybe Seager’s dependable clubhouse presence, and being a homegrown Dodger, and small-sample-size postseason heroics number for much than logic suggests. Maybe the beforehand bureau volition conscionable person to usage its imaginativeness a small much to optimize a roster with Seager locked successful to a semipermanent deal.

At 27, Seager is the benignant of subordinate who tin and should bid a declaration of 5 years oregon longer arsenic a escaped agent. If Scott Boras tin get 13 years for Bryce Harper, I’m not definite wherever you acceptable the level connected Seager’s adjacent contract. It’s the magnitude of that deal, much than the money, that could springiness the Dodgers pause.

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