Dodgers in the NLCS: 3 reasons to fret and 3 reasons to hope

Editor’s note: This is the Monday, Oct. 18 variation of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from newsman J.P. Hoornstra. To person the newsletter successful your inbox, sign up here.

There’s nary mode to sugarcoat it: The Dodgers are successful the worst presumption a squad tin inhabit 2 games into a best-of-seven series. At slightest successful Games 3, 4, and 5 they’ll bat past successful each inning, including the ninth. That mightiness connection immoderate solace.

I don’t constitute these things to connection solace for its ain sake. There is immoderate anticipation to beryllium found, and we’ll get to that. There’s besides a existent origin for concern, and I’ll effort to abstracted the existent from the fake.

Remember that the Dodgers’ past 3 games person been decided by the slimmest of margins. The satellite mightiness extremity soon, but not due to the fact that of a crippled successful which:

• Trea Turner fell 2 feet abbreviated of hitting a go-ahead location run successful the ninth inning.

• Freddie Freeman deed a alert shot to near tract conscionable heavy capable for Eddie Rosario to tag up astatine archetypal basal and instrumentality 2nd due to the fact that AJ Pollock’s propulsion was a fewer feet disconnected target.

• Rosario subsequently scored connected a azygous to close tract due to the fact that the propulsion location arrived connected 2 hops … due to the fact that the close fielder was Steven Souza Jr. and not Mookie Betts … due to the fact that Betts moved to halfway tract erstwhile Gavin Lux was removed for pinch-hitter Justin Turner earlier successful the crippled

• Corey Seager got his mitt down enough to deflect this ball, but not halt it from going into halfway tract with a runner connected 2nd successful the bottommost of the ninth

Like the check-swing telephone against Wilmer Flores that ended Game 5 of the NL Division Series against the Giants oregon Chris Taylor’s baserunning blunder successful Game 1 of the NLCS, immoderate of these plays could person gone the different way. On Sunday, the Braves needed each domino to autumn conscionable so. When the quality betwixt a triumph and a nonaccomplishment is that narrow, there’s nary shortage of plays, oregon decisions, oregon moments of futility to clasp up arsenic “the crushed the Dodgers are down 0-2.” The constituent present is that, successful spite of their shortcomings, the Dodgers could precise good beryllium starring 2-0, oregon astatine slightest tied, 1-1.

Here are 3 tangible reasons to consciousness amended astir the existent authorities of affairs:

1. Walker Buehler is starting Game 3.

Buehler volition person had six days of remainder by Tuesday afternoon. He volition not person been burdened with a bullpen quality since his past start, a superb short-rest outing successful Game 4 of the NLDS. Buehler has a 2.50 ERA successful 13 postseason games portion averaging adjacent to 5-2/3 innings per start. The Dodgers tin commencement the pitcher they want, and helium should beryllium arsenic adjacent to afloat spot arsenic possible.

2. The Dodgers volition get much hits with RISP

If you judge hitting with runners successful scoring presumption is simply a repeatable skill, you should similar this Dodger team. In the 162-game regular season, lone 3 hitters connected the progressive roster (Cody Bellinger, Austin Barnes, and Steven Souza Jr., who batted conscionable six times with runners successful scoring position) were beneath league-average successful these situations. Every different presumption subordinate met oregon exceeded this constrictive explanation of “clutch.”

There’s nary excusing the Dodgers’ 2-for-18 people with runners successful scoring presumption successful the archetypal 2 games of the series. It’s bad. Neither is it particularly predictive. The Rays (.830 OPS) and White Sox (.767) got plentifulness of large hits with runners successful scoring presumption in the part bid round. They inactive mislaid to the Red Sox and Astros, respectively, who had much chances to bat successful those situations during their four-game series.

The Dodgers have batted 18 times with runners successful scoring presumption betwixt Games 1 and 2, the Braves eight. If they support getting the chances, past says the hits should fall.

3. They’ve been present before

The Dodgers trailed the Braves 2-0 and 3-1 successful last year’s NLCS. They didn’t truly person home-field vantage – neither did the Braves successful Arlington, Texas – but they did not fold connected the biggest signifier the 2020 play could offer. The full happening astir “knowing however to win” is simply a tad overblown successful a athletics that hasn’t offered a repetition champion successful 20 years. If you’re going to trot retired that trope, callback that lone 1 squad successful this bid knows however to triumph an NLCS. It isn’t the Braves.

OK. Here are 3 reasons for pessimism:

1. The Dodgers aren’t utilizing their full roster

The Braves won 88 games successful the regular season, less than immoderate part winner. The Dodgers, meanwhile, went 43-13 aft Aug. 1 to decorativeness the regular play with 106 wins.

However, those Dodgers were capable to thin connected Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw (both of whom are injured now) much than Billy McKinney and Steven Souza Jr. (who we’ve seen successful the playoffs). Justin Turner was not astatine afloat spot successful Game 1 due to the fact that of a cervix wounded and was constricted to pinch-hitting successful Game 2. Lefty reliever Justin Bruihl was acceptable successful Game 2 of the NLCS erstwhile a left-handed leaning information of the Braves’ lineup came to bat successful the eighth inning, but Dave Roberts gave the shot to Julio Urías instead.

Whether by prime oregon not, the Dodgers were a much implicit squad a period ago. Now they’re competing with a roster with little existent endowment than they displayed down the stretch. Sure, the Braves are missing their champion subordinate (Ronald Acuña Jr.), but that doesn’t mean they are inherently worse connected insubstantial than the Dodgers. This matchup mightiness beryllium much adjacent than we thought.

2. AJ Pollock has turned into a pumpkin

By OPS+, Pollock was the Dodgers’ best-hitting outfielder during the regular season. He’s 4 for 22 with 9 strikeouts during the postseason. His sheet subject looks off. He isn’t making the adjustments that person served his teammates well, especially with 2 strikes.

Pollock is simply a .176 hitter successful his 3 postseasons with the Dodgers, truthful possibly this is to beryllium expected. That’s the problem, really; nobody’s ever called it “Pollock-tober” for a reason. My hunch is that the squad that wins this bid volition person 3 oregon 4 hitters playing astatine oregon supra their level from the archetypal retired to the last. If Pollock isn’t 1 of those 3 oregon four, and Muncy is hurt, and Turner’s cervix isn’t turning … that puts a batch of unit connected the different guys.

3. Pitching short-handed

The Dodgers’ postseason rotation is presently “some operation of 3 starters, Corey Knebel for 1 oregon 2 innings and/or a bullpen game.” To triumph the World Series, they’re banking connected that look holding up for different to 8 to 12 games.

The evident crushed wherefore determination hasn’t been a back-to-back champion since 1999-2000 is the carnal situation of playing astatine specified a precocious level for truthful agelong successful 2 consecutive years, fto unsocial one. That’s much existent for pitchers than hitters. To that end, it would beryllium bully if the Dodgers had 4 starting pitchers who looked susceptible of throwing astatine slightest 5 innings a night. It’s a bully information nett to person this clip of year.

The Dodgers don’t person that. I’m not precisely definite however Urías turned into a hybrid starter/reliever, oregon however Tony Gonsolin practically disappeared. Buehler and Scherzer’s caller translation into two-times-through-the-order pitchers was much retired of necessity. The nett effect is that the Dodgers look to thin heavy connected their bullpen – a beardown bullpen, but 1 that runs the information of moving retired of substance the longer the playoffs continue. Historically, this is seldom-charted territory for an aspiring champion. A agelong commencement by Buehler successful Game 3 would spell a agelong mode toward easing this worry.

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