COVID cases are falling, but US on the brink of 700,000 dead

By AMY FORLITI and CARLA K. JOHNSON

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — A diminution successful COVID-19 cases crossed the United States implicit the past respective weeks has fixed overwhelmed hospitals immoderate relief, but administrators are bracing for yet different imaginable surge arsenic acold upwind drives radical indoors.

Health experts accidental the 4th question of the pandemic has peaked wide successful the U.S., peculiarly successful the Deep South, wherever hospitals were stretched to the bounds weeks ago. But galore Northern states are inactive struggling with rising cases, and what’s up for wintertime is acold little clear.

Unknowns see however flu play whitethorn strain already depleted infirmary staffs and whether those who person refused to get vaccinated volition alteration their minds.

An estimated 70 cardinal eligible Americans stay unvaccinated, providing kindling for the highly contagious delta variant.

“If you’re not vaccinated oregon person extortion from earthy infection, this microorganism volition find you,” warned Mike Osterholm, manager of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

Nationwide, the fig of radical present successful the infirmary with COVID-19 has fallen to determination astir 75,000 from implicit 93,000 successful aboriginal September. New cases are connected the downswing astatine astir 112,000 per time connected average, a driblet of astir one-third implicit the past 2 1/2 weeks.

Deaths, too, look to beryllium declining, averaging astir 1,900 a time versus much than 2,000 astir a week ago, though the U.S. closed successful Friday connected the heartbreaking milestone of 700,000 dormant wide since the pandemic began.

The easing of the summertime surge has been attributed to much disguise wearing and much radical getting vaccinated. The alteration successful lawsuit numbers could besides beryllium owed to the microorganism having burned done susceptible radical and moving retired of substance successful immoderate places.

In different promising development, Merck said Friday its experimental pill for radical sick with COVID-19 reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half. If it wins authorization from regulators, it volition beryllium the archetypal pill for treating COVID-19 — and an important, easy-to-use caller limb successful the arsenal against the pandemic.

All treatments present authorized successful the U.S. against the coronavirus necessitate an IV oregon injection.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s apical infectious illness specialist, warned connected Friday that immoderate whitethorn spot the encouraging trends arsenic a crushed to stay unvaccinated.

“It’s bully quality we’re starting to spot the curves” coming down, helium said. “That is not an excuse to locomotion distant from the contented of needing to get vaccinated.”

Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center successful Baton Rouge, Louisiana, began seeing a surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations successful mid-July, and by the archetypal week of August, the spot was beyond capacity. It stopped elective surgeries and brought successful subject doctors and nurses to assistance attraction for patients.

With cases present down, the subject squad is scheduled to permission astatine the extremity of October.

Still, the hospital’s main aesculapian officer, Dr. Catherine O’Neal, said the complaint of hospitalizations isn’t decreasing arsenic rapidly arsenic cases successful the assemblage due to the fact that the delta variant is affecting much young radical who are different steadfast and are surviving overmuch longer successful the intensive attraction portion connected ventilators.

“It creates a batch of ICU patients that don’t determination anywhere,” she said. And galore of the patients aren’t going location astatine all. In the past fewer weeks, the infirmary saw respective days with much than 5 COVID-19 deaths daily, including 1 time erstwhile determination were 10 deaths.

“We mislaid different dada successful his 40s conscionable a fewer days ago,” O’Neal said. “It’s continuing to happen. And that’s what the calamity of COVID is.”

As for wherever the outbreak goes from here, “I person to archer you, my crystal shot has breached aggregate times successful the past 2 years,” she said. But she added that the infirmary has to beryllium prepared for different surge astatine the extremity of November, arsenic flu play besides ramps up.

Dr. Sandra Kemmerly, strategy aesculapian manager for infirmary prime astatine Ochsner Health successful Louisiana, said this 4th surge of the pandemic has been harder. “It’s conscionable frustrating for radical to dice of vaccine-preventable illnesses,” she said.

At the highest of this astir caller wave, Ochsner hospitals had 1,074 COVID-19 patients connected Aug. 9. That had dropped to 208 arsenic of Thursday.

Other hospitals are seeing decreases arsenic well. The University of Mississippi Medical Center had 146 hospitalized COVID-19 patients astatine its mid-August peak. That was was down to 39 connected Friday. Lexington Medical Center successful West Columbia, South Carolina, had much than 190 successful aboriginal September but conscionable 49 connected Friday.

But Kemmerly doesn’t expect the alteration to last. “I afloat expect to spot much hospitalizations owed to COVID,” she said.

Like galore different wellness professionals, Natalie Dean, a prof of biostatistics astatine Emory University, is taking a cautious presumption astir the winter.

It is unclear if the coronavirus volition instrumentality connected the seasonal signifier of the flu, with predictable peaks successful the wintertime arsenic radical stitchery indoors for the holidays. Simply due to the fact that of the nation’s size and diversity, determination volition beryllium places that person outbreaks and surges, she said.

What’s more, the uncertainties of quality behaviour complicate the picture. People respond to hazard by taking precautions, which slows viral transmission. Then, feeling safer, radical mingle much freely, sparking a caller question of contagion.

“Infectious illness models are antithetic from upwind models,” Dean said. “A hurricane doesn’t alteration its people due to the fact that of what the exemplary said.”

One influential model, from the University of Washington, projects caller cases volition bump up again this fall, but vaccine extortion and infection-induced immunity volition forestall the microorganism from taking arsenic galore lives arsenic it did past winter.

Still, the exemplary predicts astir 90,000 much Americans volition dice by Jan. 1 for an wide decease toll of 788,000 by that date. The exemplary calculates that astir fractional of those deaths could beryllium averted if astir everyone wore masks successful public.

“Mask wearing is already heading successful the incorrect direction,” said Ali Mokdad, a prof of wellness metrics sciences astatine the university. “We request to marque definite we are acceptable for wintertime due to the fact that our hospitals are exhausted.”

___

Johnson reported from Washington state. Associated Press writer Zeke Miller contributed from Washington, D.C.