B.1.1.529: How dangerous is the new variant found in South Africa?

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A pistillate successful Johannesburg receives a nasal swab from a wellness worker

A caller variant of SARS-CoV-2, known arsenic B.1.1.529, with an unusually precocious fig of mutations has been detected successful South Africa and appears to person triggered a caller surge successful cases there.

When was B.1.1.529 archetypal identified?

It was archetypal detected connected 23 November successful South Africa utilizing samples taken betwixt 14 and 16 November. Joe Phaahla, South Africa’s wellness minister, said yesterday that helium believes the variant is down an exponential regular emergence successful covid-19 cases crossed the state successful caller days. Yesterday, the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) designated it a variant nether investigation, triggering question restrictions for radical travelling to the UK from South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The World Health Organization had listed B.1.1.529 arsenic a variant nether monitoring, but its Technical Advisory Group connected SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution has present advised changing it to a variant of concern. The WHO has present named it Omicron aft the Greek letter.

What is happening successful South Africa?

National regular cases person gone from 274 connected 11 November to 1000 a fortnight later. While the complaint of maturation has been fast, implicit numbers are inactive comparatively debased compared with the UK, which saw 50,000 cases connected 26 November. More than 80 per cent of South Africa’s cases are presently successful the country’s Gauteng province. All of the 77 cases sequenced successful the state betwixt 12 and 20 November were identified arsenic being caused by the variant. The estimated reproduction number, the mean fig of radical that an idiosyncratic is apt to infect, is astir 2 successful Gauteng compared with astir 1.5 nationally.

What bash B.1.1.529’s mutations archer us?

The variant has a “very antithetic constellation of mutations”, says Sharon Peacock astatine the University of Cambridge. There are much than 30 mutations successful the spike protein, the portion of the microorganism that interacts with quality cells. Other mutations whitethorn assistance the microorganism bypass our immune systems, marque it much transmissible and little susceptible to treatments, according to the HSA. But the body notes that “this has not been proven”.

What the mutations mean is presently theoretical and based connected acquisition of past mutations of SARS-CoV-2 alternatively than laboratory tests. Wendy Barclay astatine Imperial College London says “we don’t truly know” if it volition trim the effectiveness of vaccines. Nonetheless, she adds that, successful theory, the fig of changes crossed the antigenic sites connected the variant’s spike means the effectiveness of antibodies produced by covid-19 vaccines would beryllium compromised.

Mutations connected a portion of the microorganism known arsenic the furin cleavage tract are akin to those seen successful the alpha and delta variants, which could assistance the variant dispersed much easily. Barclay says “it’s precise biologically plausible” that B.1.1.529 has greater transmissibility than delta.

The mutations besides mean that the caller variant is apt to beryllium much resistant to antibody treatments specified arsenic those developed by Regeneron, which person been shown to prevention lives. “That is truly a origin for concern,” says Barclay. One tiny agleam spot is that, to date, determination are nary signs that the variant causes much terrible disease.

How acold has it spread?

Genomic sequencing has recovered the variant successful South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong. There are besides reported cases in Israel, seemingly originating from a traveller from Malawi, and successful Belgium, from idiosyncratic who had travelled from Egypt. UK wellness caput Sajid Javid said it is “highly likely” that the variant has dispersed to different countries. No cases person been detected successful the UK yet, wherever astir a 5th of affirmative cases are sent for genomic sequencing. Even successful countries with debased levels of sequencing, determination whitethorn beryllium immoderate aboriginal informing signs, due to the fact that the variant is linked to a mutation called S-gene dropout, which is picked up by PCR tests, says Jeffrey Barrett astatine the Wellcome Sanger Institute successful Hinxton, UK.

How person different places responded?

The UK and EU person some imposed restrictions connected radical travelling from countries successful confederate Africa, with Javid saying the variant is of “huge planetary concern”.

Is it a fixed that this volition outcompete the delta variant?

We don’t know. “We don’t person definitive grounds astatine the infinitesimal that this is much transmissible, but determination are hints determination that it whitethorn be,” says Peacock, pointing to the maturation successful South Africa and the higher R fig successful Gauteng. Some earlier variants person failed to get a toehold successful definite countries due to the fact that of the contention from different variants: beta hasn’t go established successful the UK, for example, portion alpha dispersed from Europe but ne'er reached precocious levels successful South Africa. “If this variant is not arsenic transmissible arsenic delta that would beryllium bully quality for sure,” says Barrett.

What tin I do?

All the accustomed measures of societal distancing, handwashing, mask-wearing, getting vaccinated and having a booster changeable inactive apply. The emergence of specified a perchance worrying variant is, however, a reminder of the hazard of uneven vaccination rates globally – only 24 per cent of radical are afloat vaccinated successful South Africa – and wherefore helping debased and middle-income countries entree vaccines is important.

How overmuch bash we truly cognize astir this variant?

Most of our cognition is from the Network for Genomic Surveillance successful South Africa, and the South African government, some of which person been praised by researchers for acting accelerated to stock accusation connected the variant. But determination is much that we don’t cognize than we do. Tulio de Oliveira astatine Stellenbosch University, South Africa, said yesterday that the afloat value of the variant’s mutations “remain uncertain.” Peacock adds: “It’s important to accent however overmuch we don’t cognize this caller variant.“