Alexander: Has overthinking cost Dodgers a shot at repeat?

LOS ANGELES — It is mode excessively casual to overthink things successful baseball’s postseason.

It’s a caller trend, to beryllium sure: Using starting pitchers arsenic relievers, taking them retired of their comfortableness zones and expecting them to execute connected abbreviated rest, with the scripts having been drawn up by the beforehand bureau and its analysts and implemented by the manager. (And, arsenic we’ve mentioned before, we each cognize who bears the brunt of the second-guessing and disapproval erstwhile the moves backfire.)

So were Dave Roberts’ ears burning successful the 2nd and 3rd innings Wednesday night?

The Dodgers are 1 crippled distant from the extremity of their reign arsenic World Series champions aft their 9-2 nonaccomplishment to Johnny Wholestaff and the Atlanta Braves. And if you’re looking for an country of blasted you could spell backmost to 1 week agone successful San Francisco and the nighttime Roberts, Andrew Friedman and the remainder of the team’s heavy thinkers started tampering with Julio Urías.

They turned the large leagues’ lone 20-game victor into a bulk pitcher past Thursday night, successful what was past the Dodgers’ astir important crippled of the season. They survived that night, and knocked retired the Giants, partially due to the fact that of Urías’ 4 innings pursuing Corey Knebel and Brusdar Graterol but chiefly due to the fact that Cody Bellinger came up clutch successful the ninth inning.

Three nights aboriginal they wedged Urías into an eighth-inning setup relation successful Atlanta to support a 4-2 lead, which not lone didn’t work but apt compromised the young left-hander for his adjacent start.

And Wednesday night, with the Dodgers riding a question of momentum aft Bellinger’s three-run location tally keyed a four-run eighth inning comeback triumph the erstwhile day, Urías took the mound and looked similar a pitcher who had been overextended.

Eddie Rosario, a left-handed hitter, and Adam Duvall deed back-to-back location runs disconnected him successful the 2nd connected four-seam fastballs. (I astir typed “fatballs.” Maybe I should person near that typo in.) The adjacent inning, Freddie Freeman scorched different four-seamer, sending it heavy into the close tract pavilion. Two hitters later, Rosario tripled into the close tract country and scored connected Joc Pederson’s single, for a 4-0 Atlanta pb that again sent a large assemblage into stunned silence.

(Rosario added a three-run location tally successful the ninth disconnected Tony Gonsolin to crook it into a rout. He had 4 RBIs, matching his full for the full postseason earlier Wednesday, and mightiness beryllium the bid MVP if the Braves adjacent it out.)

Urías’ mean velocity connected his four-seamer is 94.1 according to the Baseball Savant website, which uses Statcast figures. Rosario deed his 377-foot thrust connected a 93.7 mph four-seamer, Duvall’s 410-foot changeable came connected a 94.7 mph four-seamer, and Freeman’s 407-foot thrust connected a 92.5 mph four-seamer.  Urías lasted 5 innings, gave up 8 hits, expended 92 pitches and near the mound aft the 5th trailing, 5-0.

Roberts afterward said helium didn’t deliberation Urias’ worldly was compromised. Urias himself said done an interpreter helium “felt bully physically. You conscionable person to springiness them recognition for what they did today.”

But this was thing adjacent to the left-hander who was truthful effectual done the year. The eyeball trial says that utilizing him retired of the bullpen successful Game 2 wasn’t necessary, oregon adjacent worthwhile. The cynic successful maine suspects that determination is inactive a tender subject.

Maybe the Dodgers’ acquisition this October volition person clubs rethinking the usage of starters successful alleviation (and Boston Red Sox reliever Nathan Eovaldi’s two-thirds of an inning Tuesday nighttime against Houston, successful which helium gave up 2 hits, 2 walks and 4 runs successful the Astros’ seven-run ninth inning, mightiness beryllium a cautionary tale, too).

The Dodgers utilized Max Scherzer to grounds the prevention successful that deciding crippled successful San Francisco past week, alternatively than sticking with their mean signifier of Blake Treinen successful the eighth and Kenley Jansen successful the ninth. It compromised Scherzer successful his Game 2 commencement successful Atlanta, erstwhile helium couldn’t get retired of the 5th inning.

Scherzer is expected to commencement Game 6 connected Saturday successful Atlanta connected mean rest. But present there’s a accidental that crippled mightiness ne'er beryllium played, and Max Fried – who was the Braves’ Game 1 starter, and who was not utilized successful alleviation successful betwixt starts – volition person thing to accidental astir it erstwhile helium starts Game 5 connected regular remainder Thursday against the Dodgers’ bullpen game.

This is not to suggest that starters coming retired of the bullpen is an wholly caller trend, but it happens much often than ever, the outgrowth of beforehand offices searching for each tiny borderline but forgetting the real-world consequences erstwhile dealing with arms, shoulders and elbows.

“I would accidental it benignant of started erstwhile I started managing,” Roberts said earlier Wednesday’s crippled erstwhile asked astir the trend. “I didn’t spot it arsenic a player. I didn’t spot it arsenic a coach.”

“You look astatine 200-inning guys implicit the regular season, which has truly tailed disconnected implicit the years. That’s benignant of the commencement of it.”

There were 4 200-inning pitchers this year, each successful the National League: Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (213), the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler (207-2/3), St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright (206-1/3) and Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (205-2/3). The mentation mightiness beryllium that those innings not thrown during the regular twelvemonth tin beryllium utilized during the postseason.

Empirical grounds suggests otherwise.

In this case, Urías didn’t look to beryllium arsenic acceptable arsenic helium could person oregon should person been. That’s different mode of saying that erstwhile you effort excessively hard to amusement you’re the smartest feline successful the room, arsenic Andrew Friedman has been known to do, the consequences tin beryllium severe.

Like, say, turning your starting pitching vantage into a liability.

jalexander@scng.com 

@Jim_Alexander connected Twitter